Foreign Policy Live

Relations between Kyiv and Washington have become particularly rocky this month. U.S. President Donald Trump is making political and diplomatic moves that seem to benefit Moscow. But why, and to what end? How should Kyiv adjust its strategy? Andrea Kendall-Taylor, a former CIA analyst and deputy national intelligence officer for Russia and Eurasia, weighs in on the strained relationship between Ukraine and the United States. Plus, Ravi shares his read on the wave of youth-led protests across the globe. Kersti Kaljulaid: The West Has a Crisis of Hope Keith Johnson: How Ukraine Is Navigating Trump’s Latest U-Turn David Ignatius: The Plan to End the Ukraine War Sam Skove: Can Ukraine Afford Its Own Defense? Keith Johnson: Trump’s Diesel Deal Has No Winners Daniel S. Hamilton and Angela Stent: America’s Best Answer to the China-Russia Alliance Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What’s the best way to navigate the Trump White House? Some countries employ flattery; others look to keep a low profile. Spain is a rare country that openly disagrees with several U.S. positions. On issue after issue, from the war in Iran to immigration policy, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s left-wing government has publicly forged a path that runs counter to a global trend of right-wing policies. But is such a path electorally viable? We’ll find out when Spaniards head to the polls in November. On the latest episode of FP Live, Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares explains how Madrid thinks about the trade-offs in following its progressive agenda while risking the ire of the world’s biggest economy. Plus, Ravi shares his read on how conflicts around the world, from Ukraine to Iran, are increasingly linked. Keith Johnson: Trump’s Diesel Deal Has No Winners Antonio De Loera-Brust: Spain Is the Friend That the United States Needs Omar G. Encarnación: A Tale of Two Socialists Michele Barbero: Spanish…

It is well known that at least part of Washington’s reluctance to regulate artificial intelligence comes from wanting to make sure the United States stays ahead of China. But what exactly are the two countries racing for? Matt Sheehan, a co-director of the China AI Initiative at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, joins FP’s Ravi Agrawal to explain the countries’ very different definitions of winning and why U.S. models are only months ahead of their Chinese competitors. Plus, after Brazil’s first round of elections, Ravi shares his read on Latin America’s rightward swing. Adam Goldsmith: Brazil’s Election Won’t Fix Its Biggest Problems Van Jackson: Trump’s ‘Greater North America’ Is Fascist Geopolitics New York Times: Jack Nicas: A Bolsonaro Win Would Nearly Complete Trump’s Latin America Map Agathe Demarais: China’s AI Rollout Has No Off Switch Robert A. Manning and Giulia Neaher: China’s Success Is Forcing a U.S. AI Rethink Fareed Zakaria: America Can Regulate AI—and Still Win the AI Race…

How can you tackle poverty and create infrastructure amid an active conflict? Alexander De Croo is the head of the U.N. Development Program, and he joins FP’s Ravi Agrawal to make the case for spending development dollars on building long-term resilience. He’s exploring solutions to opium poppies in Afghanistan, electric grids in Ukraine, and sanitation in Gaza, even as major donors such as the United States pull back. Plus, Ravi shares his read on the war rapidly escalating in Ethiopia. Nosmot Gbadamosi: Ethiopia’s Return to War Threatens to Engulf the Horn of Africa World’s Toughest Job: The Triage Game: Own, Delegate, or Drop Adam Tooze: The End of Development David Miliband: It’s Time to Update the U.N. Sustainable Development Goals Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz has become one of the Trump administration’s most visible spokespeople, publicly explaining and defending its policies on everything from Iran to Venezuela and Sudan. But how has Washington’s global role changed as the White House pulls back from multilateral institutions? How does the administration make the case for an unpopular war in Iran? Waltz sits down with FP Live to talk through the White House’s foreign-policy strategy. Michael Waltz and Massad Boulous: Peace in Sudan Can Only Flower After a Weapons Embargo Abdalfatah Alburhan: How to Bring Peace to Sudan New York Times: David E. Sanger, Tyler Pager, Katie Rogers, and Zolan Kanno-Youngs: Trump Lays Out a Vision of Power Restrained Only by ‘My Own Morality’ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Maria Ressa is one of the most inspiring journalists of our age, a media leader whose bravery against authoritarianism earned her the Nobel Peace Prize in 2021. Now, she’s focusing her energy on artificial intelligence and Big Tech and how ordinary citizens can reclaim their attention, their time, and their democracies. She’s also a co-chair of the United Nations Independent International Scientific Panel on AI. Ressa joined Ravi Agrawal on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly this week at FP’s Tech and AI Forum. Plus, Ravi shares his read on what gave him chills, and what gave him hope, this UNGA week. Rockefeller Foundation: New Global Poll: Amid Growing Pessimism, Security Tops Priorities for International Cooperation Preliminary Report of the U.N. Independent International Scientific Panel on AI U.N. Independent International Scientific Panel on AI: Thematic Brief on AI Agents, Misalignment, and the Risk of Losing Human Control Adam Elkus: Are AI and Democracy Compatible? Cameron Abadi and Adam…

Ajay Banga has a simple north star as he runs the World Bank: jobs, jobs, jobs. And for good reason. The World Bank estimates that developing countries are on track to create only a third of the approximately 1.2 billion jobs they will need to keep up with demand. How can countries and companies bridge this gap? Banga sat down with FP’s Ravi Agrawal to detail how the bank is mobilizing private capital and working with governments to create sustainable jobs. Mariana Mazzucato: How to Write Better Rules for Global Finance David Miliband: It’s Time for the World Bank to Break With Tradition Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It’s time for another ask-me-anything edition of FP Live. After a trip to Kyiv, FP editor in chief Ravi Agrawal explained why new developments in drone technology have him worried about conflicts around the world. Plus, he takes on the energy market, why both the United States and Iran have overreached in their ongoing conflict, and how Chinese President Xi Jinping sees the world. Ravi Agrawal: Why My Kyiv Visit Worried Me So Much Ravi Agrawal: Trump Has Peaked Ravi Agrawal: Iran Could Be Trump’s Greatest Failure Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this bonus episode, host Ravi Agrawal presents his recent essay arguing that U.S. President Donald Trump has peaked. While Trump still has two years left in office and immense potential for global disruption, Ravi makes the case that his coercive powers are in clear decline, as seen through a depleted military and an array of global moves to de-risk from the White House. As companies and countries realize this shift, they will change how they act toward the United States and how they think about a future world order. Ravi Agrawal: Trump Has Peaked Hal Brands: How to Survive in a World Without Rules Charles A. Kupchan: The World’s Only Real Hope of Maintaining Order Mariana Mazzucato: How to Write Better Rules for Global Finance Michael Beckley: A New Engine of Development Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Behind every major decision, whether by a family buying a home or a shipping company deciding to transit the Strait of Hormuz, lies the judgment of the insurance markets. How do insurers evaluate risk, and what can we learn from how they attach a premium to conflict or natural disasters? John Doyle, the president and CEO of Marsh, a conglomerate that includes the world’s largest insurance broker, joins the show to discuss how he evaluates geopolitical risk—and how companies and countries should protect themselves from disruption. Ravi Agrawal: Trump Has Peaked Hal Brands: How to Survive in a World Without Rules Charles A. Kupchan: The World’s Only Real Hope of Maintaining Order Mariana Mazzucato: How to Write Better Rules for Global Finance Michael Beckley: A New Engine of Development Elisabeth Braw: Can Ships in the Gulf Take Trump at His Word? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The global order may be broken, but international relations scholar Charles A. Kupchan has a plan to remake it. In a forthcoming Foreign Policy essay, he argues that because power is becoming more diffuse, regional groupings such as the European Union and Association of Southeast Asian Nations will become more essential. But to really manage global governance, he proposes the creation of a high-level brain trust that would sit above a currently paralyzed United Nations and resolve disputes between world powers. Kupchan joins FP Live to discuss how to put his provocative plan into action. Plus, Ravi shares his read on how China and the United States are presenting two different visions of leadership at this week’s G-20 and Shanghai Cooperation Organization conferences. Alexandra Sharp: Moscow’s Moment of Global Summitry Comfort Ero and Richard Gowan: Peacemaking Is Power Politics Again Bruno Maçães: What Comes After Global Order Nick Danforth: Who Killed the Liberal International Order? Learn more about your…

The United States is burning through some of its most advanced munitions in its war with Iran this year. By some accounts, inventories of high-end Patriot and THAAD interceptors may be depleted by as much as 80 percent. Replacing them could take years, even as military planners worry about needs in Europe and the Indo-Pacific. Tom Karako, director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Missile Defense Project, has tracked just how deep the shortfall runs and what it would take to fix it. He joins FP Live to assess the state of U.S. stockpiles and what it means about the future of American preparedness. John Haltiwanger and Rishi Iyengar: The Iran War Has Left the U.S. Dangerously Exposed Sam Skove: U.S. War in Iran Leaves Ukraine’s Air Defense in Limbo Robert Almelor Delfeld: The U.S. Munitions Deficit Is a Political Problem Franz-Stefan Gady: Europe’s Dangerous Hesitation on Its Own Air Defense Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Political outrage is a constant part of modern life, from social media to surges of global protests. But what actually changes? Why do so many structural issues seem deeply entrenched despite high levels of voter turnout? Anton Jäger has a term for this mismatch: hyperpolitics. He joins FP Live to explain the paradox of politicization without institutionalization, why right-wing parties maneuver this era more successfully, and whether the Democratic Socialists of America party is a sign of a new political order. Plus, Ravi shares his read on why the United States canceled its joint military exercises with South Korea. Alexandra Sharp: Is Trump Choosing North Korea Over South Korea? Derek Grossman: Colby’s ‘Flexible Realism’ Won’t Work in the Indo-Pacific Anton Jäger: The End of Political Parties Steven A. Cook: Outrage Culture Is Ruining Foreign Policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Gulf countries like Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates have created entire cities and world-class airlines off the back of energy riches and U.S. security. The Iran war has upended the calculations of the Gulf monarchs. How are they rethinking their strategies? Allison Minor worked on Gulf policy in the Biden administration and joins FP Live to share her analysis. Plus, Ravi shares his read on what the recent migrant crisis in Ceuta means for the future of immigration policy. Allison Minor and April Longley Alley: A Saudi-Emirati Thaw Can Help Contain Iran Saeid Jafari: The Regional Order Iran Wanted Is Taking Shape Without It Steven A. Cook: Economic Integration in the Middle East Is a False God Rob Geist Pinfold: Discord in the Gulf Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Strait of Hormuz may be the chokepoint of the moment, but it’s actually not even the one that’s most concerning to Eddie Fishman, the author of Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare. He explains why U.S. dollar dominance, Chinese critical mineral control, and the semiconductor supply chain are more potent in terms of how much they can impact geopolitics—and how countries and companies might weaponize them. Plus, why is China following such a radically different artificial intelligence strategy than the United States? Ravi shares his read. Graham Allison: America’s Cosmic Bet on AI Rishi Iyengar: China Is AI-Maxxing Agathe Demarais: How China Is Winning the Global AI Race Keith Johnson: America’s Economic Warfare Is Sowing Its Own Demise Bob Davis: Does the United States Have the Weapons for Trade War? Maximilian Hess: Trump Has Weakened America’s Sanctions Weapon Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The ongoing war in Iran has been called the biggest energy crisis in history. How is it changing the plans of countries and companies? Which changes will be permanent? Ravi turns to Daniel Yergin, the world’s foremost expert of the oil industry and its history. Yergin is the vice chairman of S&P Global and the author of The Prize, The Quest and, most recently, The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations. Plus, Ravi shares his read on the expanding conflict in the Middle East. Philip H. Gordon: There’s Only One Way Out of Trump’s Reckless War Allison Minor and Nate Swanson: How to End the Iran War Fatih Birol: The Global Energy Map Is Being Redrawn in Real Time Michael Hirsh: How the Iran War Reshaped the Global Landscape of Power John V. Bowlus: Escaping the Hormuz Trap Ali Ahmadi: The Oil Market Is Much More Vulnerable Than Trump Believes Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Iran and the United States are locked in a familiar pattern. Conflict has resumed, both sides seem caught in an escalation trap, and oil prices are rising. What would it take for Tehran and Washington to both save face and step back? Ravi Agrawal turns to career diplomat and Iran expert Nate Swanson, who was fired by the Trump administration last year. Plus, Ravi shares his read on India’s youth protests and the so-called “Cockroach Janata Party.” Sumit Ganguly: India’s Cockroach Movement Gains Momentum Ellie Geranmayeh: How the United States and Iran Can Solve Hormuz Dennis Ross: How to Isolate Tehran David Ignatius: Trump Pushed the Reset Button. This is ‘Iran Fiasco 2.0.’ Keith Johnson: Energy Markets’ False Dawn May Be Over Rob Geist Pinfold and Dania Thafer: The Gulf States That Iran Thinks It Can Attack Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Is the trans-Atlantic relationship over? Nathalie Tocci argues that it cannot be rebuilt as it was: The liberal order that birthed trans-Atlanticism is gone, and a fundamental breach of trust has occurred. Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer sees it differently: Trans-Atlanticism was never based only on values but also on security, economic, and technological interests. The relationship has now entered a period of geopolitical maturity, where the two sides will pick and choose areas of cooperation. The two European experts debate their takes. Plus, Ravi shares his read on how renewed conflict in Iran hurts energy prices. Alexandra Sharp: U.S.-Iran Talks May Continue, but the Cease-Fire Is Over Rebecca F. Elliott and Lisa Friedman in the New York Times: China’s Next Move May Decide Whether Oil Prices Soar Nathalie Tocci: The End of Trans-Atlanticism Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer: Trans-Atlanticism Isn’t Dead—It’s Being Renegotiated Luke McGee: Washington Shouldn’t Fear NATO Expansion Dimitar Bechev: Contain, Consolidate,…

Ukraine has a new strategy in its full-scale war with Russia: using drones to attack deep into Russian territory and bring the war home to the Russian people for the first time. Has this put Moscow on the backfoot? What will it mean for the chances of a deal? Dmytro Kuleba, a former Ukrainian foreign minister and senior fellow at Harvard University’s Belfer Center, joins FP Live for a frank and realistic assessment. Plus, Ravi shares his read on the NATO summit in Ankara. Charles Dainoff, Geoffrey Fain Williams, and Robert Farley: Is Ukraine’s Decentralized Drone Innovation a Blip or a Revolution? John Kennedy and Jacob Parakilas: Putin May Escalate, but Ukraine Is Winning Christian Caryl: Ukraine Finally Has a Theory of Victory. Will It Work? Paul Hockenos: The Strategy Behind the Battle for Crimea Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

After the United States ousted Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro in January and then took out Iran’s senior leadership in the following months, U.S. President Donald Trump set his sights on Cuba, claiming that he would have the “honor of taking” the island. Michael Bustamante, a leading historian of Cuban-American relations, joins FP Live to assess the White House’s strategy and Havana’s options. Plus, Ravi shares his read on the diverse United States seen by World Cup tourists. Oliver Stuenkel: Washington’s Cuba Policy Is Self-Sabotage Howard W. French: Trump Is Playing With Fire in Cuba William M. LeoGrande and Peter Kornbluh: Is the United States on the Verge of Military Intervention in Cuba? Katrin Hansing: Blackouts, Food Shortages, and Water Scarcity Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

SpaceX’s initial public offering broke records as the largest ever and one that (briefly) made Elon Musk the first trillionaire. But just how much power should one person or one company have in space? Quinn Slobodian, a co-author of Muskism: A Guide for the Perplexed, joins FP Live to argue that Musk’s network of integrated companies—from X to Starlink—amplifies not only his economic power but his worldview. Quinn Slobodian and Ben Tarnoff: Elon Musk’s Self-Contradictory Military Policy C. Raja Mohan: Elon Musk and the Rise of Space Capitalism Adam Tooze: Elon Musk’s First Principles Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The United States and Iran have struck a memorandum of understanding to end the war that began in February. Will the deal last? And what does it mean for the United States, the Middle East, and the world? Ali Vaez has long been involved in unofficial dialogues with Iran and the United States, and he joins FP Live to analyze the deal. Plus, Ravi shares his read on why the cease-fire deal, despite its flaws, will hold. FP Staff: U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding: Full Text Duncan B. Hollis: Is the MOU a Treaty or Not? And Why Should We Care? Matthew Kroenig: The U.S. Won the War With Iran Paul Musgrave: Iran Is a Bigger Defeat Than Vietnam Will Todman: Everyone Lost the War With Iran Daniel Byman: How the Iran Deal Sets the Stage for More Conflict Nik Kowsar and Alireza Nader: Ordinary Iranians Won’t See a Dime of Trump’s Money Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

U.S. public opinion is undergoing a dramatic shift, with more and more Americans calling for less military support to Israel. So, is the “special relationship” between the two countries over? According to an essayist in Foreign Policy’s latest print issue, the partnership has peaked—and the only way to go is down. Why is that, and how did we get here? Joshua Leifer, a columnist for Haaretz and author of that essay, joins FP Live to explore trends in the U.S.-Israeli partnership. Plus, Ravi shares his read on the proposed U.S.-Iran cease-fire deal. Paul Musgrave: Iran Is a Bigger Defeat Than Vietnam Will Todman: Everyone Lost the War With Iran Menahem Merhavy: Iran’s Victory Is More Pyrrhic Than It Looks Joshua Leifer: The End of the U.S.-Israel Alliance FP’s Summer Print Issue: The End of the World as We Know It David E. Rosenberg: Netanyahu’s Reelection Could Hinge on Outcome of Iran War Steven A. Cook: Why the U.S. Should Wind Down Military Aid to Israel Learn more about your ad choices. Visit…

This week, the largest-ever World Cup will commence. Across the three host countries—Canada, Mexico, and the United States—48 teams will play 104 matches in 16 cities. But it also comes amid a particularly fraught geopolitical backdrop. Not only have the three hosts spent the last year sparring over immigration, trade, and even national sovereignty, but one of them, the United States, is at war with fellow participant Iran. Top soccer expert and Times economics editor Mehreen Khan joins FP Live to explore just how exceptional this World Cup is. Plus, Ravi shares his read on troubles for China’s solar industry. Financial Times: Adam Tooze: Wasting China’s solar panel surplus is madness The Economist: China’s world-beating solar industry is in turmoil FP Coverage of the World Cup Bobby Ghosh: Sleeping in Mexico, Playing in America Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What would it take to end the Iran war? What exit strategies are still available to the United States? Robert Malley, a former lead negotiator of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and the Biden administration’s special envoy for Iran, joins FP’s Ravi Agrawal to discuss the current talks to open the Strait of Hormuz. Plus, Ravi offers his read on why U.S. President Donald Trump is wavering between two extremes on a cease-fire deal. New York Times: Robert Malley and Stephen Wertheim: Of Course Trump Bombed Iran Wall Street Journal: Condoleezza Rice: What the U.S. Has Accomplished in Iran Ali Hashem: The World Keeps Asking Iran the Wrong Question Michael Hirsh: Why the U.S. Is Headed for a Long War With Iran Matthew Kroenig: Iran Does Not Have a Right to Enrich Uranium Sina Azodi: The Myth of Zero Enrichment Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

If the rules-based order is broken, what comes next? And who will lead it? Mark Leonard argues in his new book, Surviving Chaos: Geopolitics When the Rules Fail, that the coming system will be “un-order,” governed not by China or the United States but by no one at all. Are states responding quickly enough? Leonard, who is the director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, joins FP Live’s Ravi Agrawal to explore how policymakers should adjust. Hal Brands: Three Scenarios for a Post-Trump World Stephen M. Walt: Chinese Hegemony Might Be Happening James Palmer: China Doesn’t Always Win When the U.S. Loses Michael Hirsch: After the Nation-State Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

U.S. President Donald Trump arrived in Beijing for his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping to great fanfare but left with little to show for it. What does the Trump-Xi summit reveal about the balance of power between the world’s two biggest economies? Rana Mitter, a top historian of China, joins FP Live to discuss where the world’s most important relationship is headed. Plus, Ravi shares his read on why the Iran war may be Trump’s greatest failure. Ravi Agrawal: Iran Could Be Trump’s Greatest Failure James Palmer: The Trump-Xi Summit Was Remarkably Banal Fareed Zakaria: Trump’s China Pragmatism Is Welcome Stephen M. Walt: Chinese Hegemony Might Be Happening James Palmer: China Doesn’t Always Win When the U.S. Loses Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

There’s little doubt that the conflict in Iran has hurt much of the world economy. But not Russia. Data suggests that the Kremlin has already made billions of dollars in additional oil revenue since the United States and Israel attacked Iran. But beyond just cash, how much will this change President Vladimir Putin’s broader strategy? And what does this mean for the fate of the war in Ukraine? Alexander Gabuev, the director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, joins FP Live to explain how Russia is navigating a moment of particular global flux. Plus, Ravi offers his read on U.S. President Donald Trump’s visit to Beijing. Christian Caryl: Vladimir Putin Is Much Weaker Than You Think Sean Wiswesser: Don’t Fall for Rumors of Putin’s Weakness Keith Johnson: Russia Is Making Bank on Trump’s Iran War Christian Caryl: How Ukraine Benefited From Trump’s Iran War Alexey Kovalev: Russia’s War Boom Masks an Economic Implosion Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

While the conflict in Iran has dominated headlines in the last two months, accounts of ordinary life in the Islamic Republic are scarce. According to journalist Ali Hashem, who spent six weeks in Tehran and has visited several times in the last decade, life in the capital looks more normal than one might imagine. Shops and restaurants are largely open, and regular people seem to be rallying around the flag in the face of an external threat. And while the internet as we know it is shut down, an intranet of sorts—with access to local versions of Netflix, Uber, and WhatsApp—is allowing people a semblance of regular life. Hashem speaks with host Ravi Agrawal about his reporting from Iran. Ali Hashem: Iran Is More Unified Than Ever Ali Hashem: The Iran Cease-Fire Has Only Divided the War Ali Hashem: Waiting for the War to End in Tehran Ali Hashem: Iran Is Becoming America’s Ukraine Ali Hashem: Iran Is Built to Withstand the Ayatollah’s Assassination Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It’s time for another ask-me-anything edition of FP Live. This one takes on the war in Iran from many angles: the economic impact, regional balance of power, the longer-term global impact, and much else. Producer Dana Sherne puts audience questions to FP’s editor in chief Ravi Agrawal. Ravi Agrawal: The World Is Paying the Price for America’s War Ravi Agrawal: Trump Is Losing the War in Iran Stephen M. Walt: The End of America’s Soft Power Amir Handjani: The Real Meaning of the UAE’s OPEC Exit Aaron David Miller and Daniel C. Kurtzer: Why Trump Might Come to Regret the Iran War Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is like a ticking time bomb for the global economy, disrupting the flow of energy and rippling through industries from agriculture to semiconductors. How bad could it get? The International Monetary Fund has cut its forecast for global growth this year from 3.4 percent to 3.1 percent in the best-case scenario and 2 percent in the worst case. What countries will be the most affected, and what can they do to protect themselves? Gita Gopinath, an economics professor at Harvard University who was formerly the first deputy managing director of the IMF, joins FP Live to discuss. IMF’s World Economic Outlook: Global Economy in the Shadow of War Ravi Agrawal: The World Is Paying the Price for America’s War Keith Johnson: Why Iran Isn’t Blinking Yet Jason Bordoff and Spencer Dale: Making the U.S. More Resilient to Oil Price Shocks Esfandyar Batmanghelidj: The Iran War Is Jeopardizing the Entire Global Economy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The extension of a fragile cease-fire in the Middle East has left the region with no clear path forward. The Strait of Hormuz is still blocked, which means the global energy crisis will get worse. But Tehran’s new leaders are suffering too. What is their plan? Iran expert Karim Sadjadpour joins FP Live to discuss the shifting state of the war. Plus, Ravi shares his read on how the war’s economic fallout is worst in Asia. Ravi Agrawal: The World Is Paying the Price for America’s War David Ignatius: Both Sides Want a Deal. Both Keep Acting As if They Don’t. Menahem Merhavy: The Man Who Represents Post-Clerical Iran Bobby Ghosh: Tehran Can’t Count on Hormuz Philip H. Gordon and Rebecca Lissner: The Strategic Aftershocks of Trump’s Iran War Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Iran war has become the most serious foreign-policy challenge for U.S. President Donald Trump in his second term. But does it reveal a larger point about U.S. power? Stephen M. Walt, a professor at Harvard University and Foreign Policy columnist, argues that it does and that the United States is increasingly acting like a rogue state. What damage will this cause, and what can countries do about it? Plus, Ravi offers his read on Hungary’s election and why it matters for the world. Thomas Carothers: Why Viktor Orban’s Fidesz Party Lost Stephen M. Walt: The United States Has Become a Rogue State Foreign Affairs: Stephen M. Walt: The Predatory Hegemon Ravi Agrawal: Trump Is Ushering In a More Transactional World Howard W. French: Trump’s Recipe for Accelerated U.S. Decline Pew Research Center: International Views of China Turn Slightly More Positive Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Trump administration’s plans in the Middle East are often criticized by those who say he shouldn’t have attacked Iran. But the White House is also facing flak from those who say that it didn’t go far enough. John Bolton is a longtime proponent of regime change in Iran. He served as national security advisor in the first Trump administration before falling out with the president. Bolton joined FP’s Ravi Agrawal for a debate. Plus, Ravi gives his read on the tenuous Middle East cease-fire. Ravi Agrawal: Why Trump Mishandled Iran New York Times: John Bolton: Finish the Job: How Trump Can Still Win in Iran Ali Hashem: The Iran Cease-Fire Has Only Divided the War Raphael S. Cohen: Trump’s Iran War Is a Dilemma, Not a Debacle Eric Brewer: Preventing an Iranian Bomb Is Only Getting Harder Stephen Walt: America’s Pro-War Elites Must Be Held Accountable Rishi Iyengar: Trump’s Pivot to Pakistan Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

After news of a 14-day cease-fire in the middle east conflict, Ravi shares his initial thoughts and analysis. Plus, the rationale for attacking Iran revolved around security. How did the global narrative become about energy? Iran’s strongest weapon has turned out to be its ability to strangle the Strait of Hormuz, an important trade choke point. What does the return of energy as a weapon mean for the global economy? Meghan O’Sullivan, author of Windfall: How the New Energy Abundance Upends Global Politics and Strengthens America’s Power, explains how countries need to think about their energy security. She is a professor at Harvard University and has previously served as deputy national security advisor for Iraq and Afghanistan in the George W. Bush administration. Ravi Agrawal: Why Trump Mishandled Iran New York Times: How Trump Took the U.S. to War With Iran Amir Handjani: The War Will End With a Hormuz Toll Booth Nils Gilman: Electrostates vs. Petrostates Jason Bordoff and Spencer Dale: Making the U.S.…

As the U.S.-Israel war against Iran enters a second month of conflict, how is Tehran’s surviving leadership thinking about an endgame? And how will the conflict reshape geopolitics in the region? Ali Vaez has extensive contacts with Iranian lawmakers and sits down with Ravi Agrawal to discuss the regime’s options. Vaez is a project director at the International Crisis Group. Plus, Ravi’s Read on how the White House seems to be winning the battle but losing the war. Ravi Agrawal: Trump Is Losing the War in Iran Robert A. Pape and Ali Vaez: The Iran War Has Escaped Its Authors Zakiyeh Yazdanshenas: What Iran Wants From the War Thomas Juneau: Get Ready for a Weaker but Nastier Iran Menahem Merhavy: Iran’s Civilizational Rhetoric Is Hollow Arash Reisinezhad: Iran’s Biggest Wartime Advantage is Geography Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Crude and gas prices are soaring after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on regional energy infrastructure amid war in the Middle East. How bad could the energy shock get and for how long? FP columnist Jason Bordoff sits down with Ravi Agrawal to discuss. Bordoff previously served in the Obama administration as a senior director for energy and climate change in the National Security Council. He is also the founding director of the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University. Jason Bordoff and Spencer Dale: Making the U.S. More Resilient to Oil Price Shocks Esfandyar Batmanghelidj: The Iran War Is Jeopardizing the Entire Global Economy Jason Bordoff and Erica Downs: How the Iran War Could Consolidate China’s Energy Dominance Keith Johnson: Iran Is Putting a ‘Toll Booth’ in the Strait of Hormuz Nils Gilman: Electrostates vs. Petrostates Keith Johnson: Europe and the U.S. Still Haven’t Choked Off Russia’s Energy Riches Maisoon H. Kafafy: Empty Words Don’t Open Straits Learn more about…

It’s widely accepted that the post-WWII order has changed, but the question remains—what comes next? Political scientist Hal Brands maps out three possible scenarios in a cover essay for Foreign Policy’s latest print issue and joins FP Live to discuss. Brands is a professor of global affairs at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and the author of The Eurasian Century: Hot Wars, Cold Wars, and the Making of the Modern World. Hal Brands: Three Scenarios for a Post-Trump World Emma Ashford: A Better Trans-Atlantic Relationship Is Entirely Possible Sarang Shidore: Can Middle Powers Gel? Suzanne Nossel: What Would an Abundance Foreign Policy Look Like? Nils Gilman: Electrostates vs. Petrostates Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It’s no secret that democracy is in trouble. Studies show that a growing number of countries are less free, and polls suggest ordinary citizens are losing faith in their governments. What can be done to fix this? Hélène Landemore has a radical solution: to get rid of politicians and electoral politics and instead create assemblies of ordinary citizens. She explores this concept in her new book, Politics Without Politicians: The Case for Citizen Rule, and joins FP Live to interrogate the idea. Hélène Landemore: The Problem With Representative Democracy Nicholas Bequelin: The Age of Defensive Democracy Hélène Landemore: More Power to More People Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

As the war in Iran soon enters its third week, two experts join FP Live for a debate. Were the United States and Israel justified in attacking Iran? And will the war advance U.S. interests in the region, or set them back? Trita Parsi and Matthew Kroenig sit down with executive editor Dan Ephron to discuss. Parsi is the executive vice president at the Quincy Institute, and Kroenig is an FP columnist and a senior director at the Atlantic Council. Trita Parsi: Iran’s Despair Is U.S. Policy Matthew Kroenig: The Case for Destroying Iran’s Nuclear Program Now Matthew Kroenig: Why a Wider War with Iran Is Unlikely Matthew Kroenig: Trump Made History. Now the Iranian People Can, Too. Michael Hirsh: So This, Finally, Is the ‘Trump Doctrine’ John Haltiwanger: The Trump Administration’s Iran War Justifications Keep Changing Suzanne Nossel: It’s Time to Retire the Pottery Barn Rule Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

As the United States and Israel attack military facilities across Iran, Tehran has been retaliating. But it has attacked Gulf countries more than it has targeted Israel. Why? And how will the likes of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates respond? Will it shift their geopolitical alignment away from the United States? Regional experts Mina al-Oraibi, the editor in chief of the National, and Firas Maksad, a managing director at the Eurasia Group, join FP Live to share their perspectives. Khalid al-Jaber and Omar H. Rahman: Security Alliances With the U.S. Have Made Gulf States More Vulnerable David Petraeus and Clara Kaluderovic: The Drone Attrition Trap Macdonald Amoah, Morgan D. Bazilian, and Jahara Matisek: The First 36 Hours of War Consumed Over 3,000 U.S.-Israeli Munitions Firas Maksad: The Middle East Has Two New Rival Teams Esfandyar Batmanghelidj: The Iran War Is Jeopardizing the Entire Global Economy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On Saturday, Israel and the United States struck Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Tehran has been responding with volleys of missiles aimed at Israel—and also at several other countries in the region. How will the conflict end? How long can Tehran sustain this fight? Iran expert Vali Nasr joined Ravi Agrawal for an emergency episode that ran live on the afternoon of Monday, March 3. Daniel Byman: 6 Questions About Operation Epic Fury Barbara Slavin: Death Comes to the Dictator Ali Hashem: Iran Is Built to Withstand the Ayatollah’s Assassination Alireza Nader and Nik Kowsar: Khamenei Is Dead. Who’s In Charge of Iran? Amos C. Fox and Franz-Stefan Gady: Iran, Israel, and the U.S. Are Racing the Clock Anchal Vohra: Iran’s Proxies Are Out for Themselves for Now Emma Ashford: Trump Is Betraying His Base by Waging War on Iran Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

As U.S. President Donald Trump considers a military strike on Iran, what are the options on his table? What will his military advisors recommend he should and shouldn’t do? David Petraeus has often been in the position of providing such advice to the White House, and he joins FP Live to explain what could happen in the coming days. Petraeus ran U.S. and allied forces in the Middle East as the head of Central Command (CENTCOM) and later ran the CIA. Plus, One Thing from Ravi on the fourth anniversary of the war in Ukraine. FP Contributors: Four Years of War in Europe Marc Lynch: Four Scenarios for a Postwar Iran Arash Reisinezhad and Arsham Reisinezhad: What War With Iran Would Look Like Ali Hashem: The United States Is Dangerously Misreading Iran Ali Hashem: Iran Dangerously Misunderstands Its Situation Brought to you by: quince.com/fplive Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

U.S. President Donald Trump’s China policy often seems deliberately ambiguous. Is that a virtue or a flaw? Kurt Campbell is a longtime China watcher who rose up to run Asia policy under the Biden administration. He was the original architect of the so-called “pivot to Asia” during the Obama administration. He joins FP Live to discuss Trump, former U.S. President Joe Biden, and the world’s most important bilateral relationship. Plus, One Thing from Ravi on Trump’s Board of Peace. ⁠Aaron David Miller: Billions in Pledges Expected for Trump’s Board of Peace but Doubts Persist⁠ ⁠Mira Rapp-Hooper and Ely Ratner: Washington’s Silence in Asia Is a Gift to Beijing⁠ ⁠New York Times: On China, Trump Is Rolling the Dice on America’s Future⁠ ⁠Foreign Affairs: The U.S.-China Crisis Waiting to Happen⁠ ⁠A. Wess Mitchell: The Grand Strategy Behind Trump’s Foreign Policy⁠ ⁠Craig Singleton: China Grapples with Trump’s Radical Use of Power⁠ ⁠Lili Pike: Did Biden Get China Right?⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit…

Is the age of nuclear nonproliferation over? There are certainly worrying signs. New START, the main nuclear treaty between the United States and Russia, recently expired. China is rapidly expanding its nuclear arsenal. Talks to bring Iran back to the negotiating table seem to be at an impasse. And one increasingly hears about the possibility of South Korea or Japan going nuclear. What can the world do in response? Rafael Grossi, the director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, sits down with Ravi Agrawal. Rebecca Lissner and Erin D. Dumbacher: The Pillars of the Global Nuclear Order Are Cracking Decker Eveleth: The Real Risk After New START Isn’t Arms Racing Fareed Zakaria: The Post-Cold War Nuclear Era Might Have Just Ended Esfandyar Batmanghelidj: An Oil Deal for Trump Can Mean a Nuclear Deal for Iran Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Pentagon’s policy chief Elbridge Colby recently called for a “NATO 3.0”, stating that the United States would “continue to provide the U.S. extended nuclear deterrent” to Europe, but when it came to most defense matters, Europe would need to “assume primary responsibility.” Colby is the undersecretary of war for policy and joins FP Live host Ravi Agrawal at the annual Munich Security Conference. And in part two of this podcast, Colby and Agrawal were joined by four other guests: Richard Marles, the deputy prime minister and defense minister of Australia; Judith Collins, the minister of defense of New Zealand; Toshimitsu Motegi, the foreign minister of Japan; and David van Weel, the foreign minister of the Netherlands. Plus, One Thing from Ravi on U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s speech at the Munich Security Conference. Listen to Munich Moments on Apple or Spotify. A transcript of U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance’s 2025 speech at the Munich Security Conference. A transcript of U.S. Secretary of State…

U.S. tariffs have upended decades of trade policy, but new U.N. data shows that the economies suffering most are those that can least afford a setback. At the Munich Security Conference (MSC), FP’s Ravi Agrawal hosted a panel on the trade wars, with policymakers on the front lines of these economic changes: Ngozi Okonjo Iweala, the director-general of the World Trade Organization; Finnish President Alexander Stubb; German Vice Chancellor Lars Klingbeil; and U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis. Follow FP’s MSC coverage here. Wendy Cutler: How Countries Should Respond to Trump’s Tariffs Keith Johnson: Tariffs Have Hurt, Not Helped, the U.S. Economy Rishi Iyengar: EU Don’t Need U.S.? Ramon Pacheco Pardo and Robyn Klingler-Vidra: Middle Powers Don’t Have to Work Together to Get Ahead Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

With the White House continuing to threaten military action against Tehran even as diplomatic talks continue, Iran expert Karim Sadjadpour joins FP Live host Ravi Agrawal to discuss what might come next. Sadjadpour is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Plus, One Thing from Ravi on a sobering new report about a world “Under Destruction.” A transcript of J.D. Vance’s 2025 Munich Security Conference speech Under Destruction: Munich Security Report 2026 Amitav Acharya: The World-Minus-One Moment Follow FP’s MSC coverage here The Atlantic: Karim Sadjadpour and Jack A. Goldstone: Is the Iranian Regime About to Collapse? Trita Parsi: Iran’s Despair Is U.S. Policy Saeid Golkar: Why Iran’s Regime Didn’t Collapse Abbas Milani: Iran’s Crown Prince Has Become Indispensable Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

FP’s Ravi Agrawal sits down with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis to discuss NATO, a shifting European defense strategy, and more. Plus, One Thing from Ravi on the rising nuclear threat. Ravi Agrawal: Greek PM: ‘I haven’t given up on the trans-Atlantic relationship.’ Stavros Papastavrou: The Trans-Atlantic Energy Relationship Is Stronger Than Ever Kristi Raik: Europe’s 4 Different Ways of Handling Trump Luke McGee: Europe Is Prepared to Create Its Own Army Stephen M. Walt: NATO’s Leader is Totally Lost Rebecca Lissner and Erin D. Dumbacher: The Pillars of the Global Nuclear Order Are Cracking Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

U.S. President Donald Trump’s pursuit of Greenland has brought a geopolitical hot spot—the Arctic—back into the fore. Host Ravi Agrawal is joined by Heather A. Conley, one of the leading experts on the region, to hear more. Plus, One Thing from Ravi on China’s latest military purge. Casey Michel: Annexing Greenland Would Be a Strategic Catastrophe Imran Bayoumi: Trump’s Greenland Threats Paper Over a Lack of Arctic Strategy Christina Lu: Greenland’s Rare Earths Aren’t All That Stephen M. Walt: What Spheres of Influence Are—and Aren’t Michele Barbero: To Protect Greenland, Europe Kicks Into High Gear Deng Yuwen: As Generals Fall, Xi Jinping’s Anti-Corruption Campaign Is Eating Itself Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices